Butterfly effect
- For other uses, see butterfly effect (disambiguation).
The
butterfly effect, used to describe many
chaotic phenomena, was first described as such in reference to
weather: that the beating of a
butterfly's wings in
Brazil might set off a
tornado in
Texas months later
1.
Chaos theory posits that complex systems such as the weather, or the stock market, are difficult to predict due to their sensitivity to small changes. The cumulative effect of these small changes, and their timing, makes it very difficult or impossible to predict future conditions with a high degree of certainty.
- 1 Edward Lorenz, in a paper in 1963 given to the New York Academy of Sciences, said: "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever." Later speeches and papers by Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly.
The expression
butterfly effect itself seems to be based on the sci-fi short history
A Sound of Thunder, written by
Ray Bradbury in 1952. In the history, a time traveller accidentally steps on a butterfly, changing his entire future.
External links